Alberta’s construction market can expect “modest growth” through the next decade, driven by a strengthening residential sector in the near term, and strengthening non-residential demand over the longer term.
But given expected industry retirements, this demand may leave the province with a shortfall of 23,700 workers by the end of 2029, according to the labour market forecast released Thursday by BuildForce Canada.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial report forecasts employment requirements for both the residential and non-residential sectors to increase by nearly 23,400 workers (+13 per cent) between 2020 and 2029.
“Due to the intense and time-sensitive nature of industrial shutdown and turnaround maintenance work, seasonal recruiting challenges may arise,” said Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada, in a news release. “We expect labour force requirements in both 2020 and 2021 to be higher than normal.”
“In the first two quarters of 2019, Alberta led the country in terms of population growth, boosted by both natural growth as well as international and interprovincial migration. This rise in the population should translate into greater demand for construction services in the latter half of our outlook, particularly for housing and commercial and institutional buildings.”
The report said the intensification of near-term work on several petrochemical projects and oil and gas pipeline expansions — including completion of the Canadian portion of Enbridge’s Line 3 in 2019 and the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion to 2023 — is expected to maintain non-residential construction employment over the short term.
“While a number of significant new oil and gas projects are being tracked, there are currently no short-term projects included in the outlook. The completion of both the Enbridge and Trans Mountain pipeline projects should help kickstart the construction of a number of new and currently tracked major oil sands investments later in the decade,” said the report.
“Many of the skilled trades required for maintenance are in high demand, so these projects can create periods of seasonal labour force tightness. Alberta may also face recruiting challenges as it competes for highly specialized workers with other provinces, particularly Ontario and British Columbia, where several major capital projects requiring similar skills are ongoing or expected to commence shortly.”
The report said ongoing road, highway, and bridge work and major planned public transportation investments in both Calgary and Edmonton are also expected to sustain non-residential construction, although scope and scheduling details for some of these projects are still fluid.
“For the period between 2020 and 2029, non-residential construction activity will require the industry to increase employment by more than 14,700 workers, concentrated between 2023 and 2027,” said BuildForce.
“Despite weaker market conditions in 2019 due to declines in new-housing construction, a modest recovery in housing starts and increased renovation activity is expected to return the residential labour market to balance by 2020. The residential sector is expected to add just over 8,700 residential workers (+12 per cent) by 2029, driven by a moderate strengthening in new-housing demands, with rising renovation activity projected to contribute nearly 2,700 workers to that total.
“The population increase should also help ameliorate the impact of retirements on the province’s construction labour force, which is expected to lose 41,500 workers to retirement over the decade while only drawing in an estimated 40,300 local new entrants aged 30 and younger over the same period. When coupled with the rise in demand for construction services, the provincial labour force may be short 23,700 workers by 2029.”
Mario Toneguzzi is a business reporter in Calgary.
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