But are the tides turning for the Saskatchewan Premier as he gears up for the next provincial election?
For two solid terms in government, Saskatchewan’s Premier Scott Moe has ruled the province with bravado and bluster, picking fights with the federal Liberal government and taking no prisoners in his Saskatchewan-first provincial rights campaign.
If Alberta’s Danielle Smith has grabbed the headlines in the past year on her anti-Ottawa bully pulpit, then she surely has a soulmate in Moe, who has been picking fights with the feds since he became premier in 2018.
If Manitoba’s left-leaning premier, Wab Kinew, is Dr. Jeckyl to the feds, then Moe is Mr. Hyde. His confrontational approach to government relations is the inverse of everything Kinew espouses, for better or worse.
Moe has built a career on the back of his adversarial relationship with the federal government. He challenged (unsuccessfully) federal carbon pricing in court, repeatedly called for a reset to provincial-federal relations and advocated for expanded provincial powers, especially in policing and taxation.
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This year, Saskatchewan said it would not comply with the federal government’s new clean electricity regulations, citing a report that said it would slow economic growth by at least $7.1 billion and cost at least 4,200 jobs.
Moe’s approach to climate and environment emphasizes technological solutions like carbon capture and storage and agricultural practices, encapsulated in a strategy called Climate Resilience. However, environmental organizations, such as the Saskatchewan Environmental Society, condemn the strategy as inadequate to address the province’s environmental challenges. Saskatchewan, by the way, has the highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita in Canada.
And last year, Moe’s government passed the controversial Saskatchewan First Act to protect natural resources and the production and generation of energy from “federal overreach.” The act amends the Constitution of Saskatchewan to assert Saskatchewan’s autonomy and claim exclusive legislative jurisdiction under Section 92 (A) of the Constitution of Canada over a number of areas, including:
- exploration for non-renewable natural resources,
- the development, conservation and management of non-renewable natural and forestry resources, and
- the operation of sites and facilities for the generation and production of electrical energy.
During his two terms, Moe has had his share of troubles. His team has branded itself a “law-and-order,” family-values government. Yet its MLAs keep getting into trouble. In February, Moose Jaw Wakamow MLA Greg Lawrence was booted from caucus after he was charged with assault and assault by choking. Before that, caucus member Ryan Domotor, MLA for Cut Knife-Turtleford, was picked up in a police human trafficking sting and charged with communicating for the purposes of obtaining sexual services. This follows the ejection of MLA Nadine Wilson from caucus for misrepresenting her COVID-19 vaccine status.
And yet, Moe is one of those unapologetic politicians to whom the misdeeds of others never seem to stick to him. He remains highly popular with Saskatchewan voters, ranking in one recent pole as the second-most popular premier in the country.
Moe is running for a third term in Saskatchewan’s provincial election this fall. (The party previously ruled for two terms under the popular Brad Wall.) If he succeeds, it will be the Saskatchewan Party’s fifth majority government. No party has won four consecutive elections in Saskatchewan since the CCF led by Tommy Douglas in the 1950s. And no pundit worth his salt is betting against another majority government for the farm boy from Shellbrook.
But there are curious signs that the tide might be turning for Moe’s Saskatchewan party. During closing remarks at the end of the spring session, outgoing legislative Speaker Randy Weekes said numerous Saskatchewan Party members harassed and tried to intimidate him during his time as speaker.
Others like Greg Bkrich, who stepped down before the 2020 election, have openly expressed their discontent, and some MLAs are quietly dropping out. Fully 22 of the 48 party caucus members elected in the 2020 election have announced their planned departures. Before that election, only seven members had stepped aside.
Meanwhile, Moe has amped up right-wing populist rhetoric to appeal to the fringe. After the 2020 provincial election, in which the separatist Buffalo Party received more than 2.5 percent of the popular vote, Moe stated, “We share your frustrations, and we share many of your objectives,” He went on to call for more “independence” and “autonomy” for the province. Saskatchewan should be considered a “nation within a nation,” he said, a statement applauded by both the federal separatist Maverick Party and the provincial separatist Buffalo Party.
Such talk seems to be driving some MLAs to distance themselves from their once-Midas-touch leader. Word has it that Moe’s inner circle of trusted friends has dwindled to a handful.
Voters are also becoming increasingly restive over promised healthcare improvements. There are calls for more action on healthcare staffing in hospitals and primary care. On the homelessness file, representatives of Saskatchewan urban centres are seeking changes to income assistance. Saskatoon councillor David Kirton even said the current system is “manufacturing homelessness.” On education, Regina and Saskatoon school divisions and teachers are demanding increases in funding for K-12 education.
Perhaps nothing has defined Moe’s time laissez-faire approach more than his government’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Saskatchewan was one of the hardest hit provinces in Canada. Yet, Moe limited public health measures throughout the pandemic, which made Saskatchewan the first province to lift its pandemic-related public health orders twice.
After he lifted restrictions in February 2022, Saskatchewan saw a per-capita record in COVID deaths. At least 845 people with COVID-19 died in the province that year, an increase of 43 from the year before. An Angus Reid Institute poll found that 59 percent of those surveyed felt Moe was doing a bad job handling the pandemic.
In seeking to appease the right-wing fringe, Moe may have reached the limit of tolerance from Saskatchewan’s more sensible voters. As the election season heats up, the coming weeks will reveal whether he has been able to keep his uncanny sense of the zeitgeist of this, the most prairie of the western provinces.
Doug Firby is an award-winning editorial writer with over four decades of experience working for newspapers, magazines and online publications in Ontario and western Canada. Previously, he served as Editorial Page Editor at the Calgary Herald.
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