Unemployment rates in Alberta in general and the Calgary region jumped in August, while the Edmonton region saw a slight decline, according to data released on Friday by Statistics Canada.
The federal agency reported that the unemployment rate in the Calgary census metropolitan area rose to 7.3 per cent from 6.9 per cent in July.
Alberta’s unemployment rate increased from 7.0 per cent to 7.2 per cent in August.
But in the Edmonton census metropolitan area, the unemployment rate fell to 7.4 per cent from 7.5 per cent the previous month.
In the Calgary region, overall employment fell by 2,500 jobs month over month but on a year-over-year basis, employment was up by 55,100.
The Edmonton area saw a decline of 100 jobs from the previous month but employment rose by 1,000 on a yearly basis.
And for Alberta, there were 600 more jobs than in July and 4,100 more than August 2018.
Across Canada, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.7 per cent as employment rose by 81,000. Year over year, employment is up by 471, 300 positions.
“If the Bank of Canada was on the fence about cutting rates in October, today’s jobs numbers might be one further push towards standing pat. It doesn’t take an economics degree to conclude that a gain of 81,000 jobs, while as always including a wide statistical error term, is a hefty reading,” said Avery Shenfeld, an economist with CIBC, in a commentary note.
“While there was a leaning to part-time work in the mix, the full-time jobs count of 24,000 would on its own have been enough to top the consensus expectation for the grand total, The jobs were all paid (not self employed) private sector positions, but there was a quirk that had education jobs up 20,000 in August that might be an issue with seasonality. The jobless rate held at 5.7 per cent, the 12 month trend in wages came down from an implausible 4.5 per cent last month to a still healthy 3.8 per cent this month (likely still a bit of an overstatement). On balance, a strong report that will have markets pricing down the odds of an October rate cut, but we still see a December cut as on the table, as we expect to see some softer data emerge by then.”
Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC Economics Research, said in a commentary note that Canadian economic data have surprised to the upside recently and Friday’s jobs numbers kept that rolling with an unexpectedly strong 81,000 increase in August.
“Impressive job gains are nothing new – average employment growth over the last year is running at its strongest pace since 2003. August’s gain was skewed toward part-time (and younger workers) but trends in full-time and private employment have been healthy. Job gains have been aided by strong population growth and labour force participation, with the unemployment rate settling in a 5.5 to 5.8 per cent range (as good as it gets when you look at the past 50 years). Wage growth, long the missing ingredient in Canada’s strengthening labour market, has firmed nicely.”
Mario Toneguzzi is a Troy Media business reporter based in Calgary.
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