Canada’s fertility crisis reflects decades of bad government

The gap between the families Canadians want and the families they can afford is a damning indictment of decades of bad public policy

Canada’s families have been shrinking for decades, and we did not arrive at a historic low fertility rate overnight. When birth rates decline year after year, as has been the case in Canada, they reveal something deeper about our society.

As new Cardus research has shown, the decline in fertility is not simply about people wanting fewer children, but Canadians struggling to have the children they say they would like to have. This reflects a complex interplay between economic and social realities. As Canadians consider future family life, they worry about affordability, stable housing, finances, and the tensions between having children and achieving other life goals. These challenges not only affect fertility rates but also the well-being of parents and would-be parents.

Home Alone: Why Most Canadians Have Fewer Children Than They Want is a follow-up to our 2022 survey looking at why Canadians are having fewer children and why many families are having fewer children than they hope for. The survey inquired about fertility preferences, intentions and outcomes of 3,000 Canadian women and men aged 18 to 44, including a diverse mix of Anglophone, Francophone and foreign-born adults.

The study revealed a gap between the number of children Canadians would ideally like to have and the number of children they intend to have. On average, Canadian adults say they want about two children but report they intend to have an average of just over 1.5 children.

Not all intentions are realized. The total fertility rate, an estimate of the average number of children a woman will have over her lifetime, was just 1.25 children in 2024.

Canada’s fertility remains below replacement level—internationally recognized as 2.1 children per family—and is trending in the wrong direction. While Canada’s population has never been higher, having a healthy fertility rate is typically essential to a country’s long-term prosperity and health and, as noted in the research, important to the well-being and life satisfaction of parents.

While the national implications are important, our primary concern is the effect of the gap between fertility desires and intentions on well-being. Our study found that “undershooting,” meaning having fewer children than planned, has a noticeable effect on life satisfaction. When asking adults aged 40 to 44 who participated in the study about their life satisfaction, those who achieved their desired family size averaged 6.2 out of 10 while those who undershot their fertility ideal averaged 5.8. We found that over half of respondents aged 40 to 44 had fewer children than they said they wanted. Ensuring Canadian families feel able to have the family size they desire should be an important social concern.

We were surprised that worries around child-care affordability and availability affecting fertility decisions increased between 2022 and the current survey. These worries increased despite the federal government spending more than $30 billion over the previous five years on day care affordability and access. The rapid reduction of some day-care fees has increased demand beyond available supply. This may have increased awareness about day-care cost and access issues, increasing worries among parents and potential parents who were considering having more children.

Public policy proposals that address issues such as housing and affordability can help. Policymakers should be concerned about Canadians’ ability to achieve the family life they desire. As the results of the survey show, not all factors can be addressed through public policy. Civil society has a role to play in strengthening community support for parents and in shaping how we think about and approach parenting.

Peter Jon Mitchell is the Family Program Director at Cardus and a leading expert on Canadian family dynamics. Co-author of I . . . Do? Why Marriage Still Matters, he is a national authority on child care and youth development, frequently consulted by media and parliamentary committees to provide insight on public policy.”