Permanent resident additions were down 30 per cent in March versus a year earlier and temporary foreign worker entries in the agricultural sector fell 45 per cent, according to a new report released Friday by RBC Economics.
The report also said the number of students entering on study visas fell 45 per cent in March from a year earlier and the net loss of new permanent residents this year could total up to 170,000.
“Even before the pandemic, Canada relied on immigration to offset the fiscal challenge posed by an aging population. With the tab of fighting COVID-19 already nearing $160 billion, Canada needs a growing labour force more than ever. Canada entered this crisis with a federal debt-to-GDP ratio (31 per cent) that was lower than many other major economies, but limited fiscal wiggle room to maintain it, according to the Parliamentary Budget Office. Its projections, however, assumed Ottawa would maintain healthy immigration numbers, and didn’t take into account the added costs of supporting a COVID-stricken economy,” said the report.
“Canada’s colleges and universities have come to rely on international students to bolster enrolment as growth in domestic students plateaued over the past 10 years. While those international students who are already in Canada to study are allowed to remain, closed borders—and schools’ move to online learning—could weigh on enrolments this fall. That reduction could also hurt the small businesses and landlords who depend on these students for revenue. International students contribute over $6 billion in tuition alone each year. (Consider the University of Toronto, which has seen international enrolments double since 2010 to 25 per cent of the student body. If just one-fifth of its foreign students decide not to study in Canada this year, it could see a shortfall of around $200 million on a $3 billion budget.) A decline in foreign students could also affect what’s been an important source of new permanent residents. Last year, some 11,000 new permanent residents had previously studied in Canada.”
In 2019, Canada’s population grew by about 580,000 people (or 1.6 per cent), with immigrants accounting for more than 80 per cent of the increase., added the report.
“While more than 30 per cent of the overall population is at least 55, only eight per cent of immigrants are. Indeed, almost two-thirds of immigrants are in the prime working ages between 25 and 54. Without immigration over the past 15 years, Canada would have aged on a similar trajectory as 1990s Japan. Instead, Canada is one of the younger countries in the G7.
“Nearly all of Canada’s largest cities have seen GDP grow faster than the national average, reflecting their large immigrant populations. In fact, with closed borders, Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal would all have seen declines in population in 2019, as Canadian-born millennials fled for more affordable outlying areas. A slowdown in immigrant-related demand for homes could squeeze the rental and housing markets.”
