The Conference Board of Canada’s latest Major Cities Insights report, released Tuesday, says Calgary and Edmonton will lead all Canadian major cities in the biggest decline in their economies this year.
The Board is forecasting Calgary’s annual GDP growth to be a negative 5.5 per cent while Edmonton will be minus 5.6 per cent.
The report forecasts key economic indicators for 13 Canadian cities from 2020 through to 2024 as well. And it forecasts Calgary and Edmonton to lead the country in that period with an average annual growth of 4.3 per cent.
“Edmonton and Calgary will be most impacted by energy sector production curtailments and the low price of oil. Construction, manufacturing, utilities, and technical services sectors will contract in both metropolitan areas this year as a result,” said the board.
“Travel restrictions and social distancing measures are having an impact in all major cities. Job losses are affecting income and consumer confidence—providing a blow to spending on accommodations, retail and restaurants in every location. Population growth and new home construction are also being affected across the board. While all cities will be affected by the pandemic, there are regional differences in the economic outlooks based on local sectors and pre-pandemic conditions.”
The report said cities with higher public sector employment will fare slightly better than others. For example, Ottawa’s large public service sector will help retain some jobs in the area as will most cities’ publicly funded healthcare industries, it added
“The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a drastic toll on the Canadian economy, and no region of the country will escape its negative impacts. All major metropolitan economies are forecast to contract in 2020. However, assuming the virus’ spread is contained, and firms can return to normal operations over the summer months, a recovery should begin in the second half of the year leading to sharp rebounds coast-to-coast in 2021,” said Todd Crawford, Associate Director, Economic Forecasting for the board, in a news release.
global pandemic, it said.