Small business confidence in Alberta improved slightly in February but it remains the lowest in Canada, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.
In releasing its monthly Business Barometer on Thursday, the organization said Alberta’s small business confidence improved slightly to an index of 39.6, up 2.6 points from January. Alberta’s index remains the lowest in the country and well behind the national index of 60.5 points. The CFIB said an index between 65-70 is an indication of a strong economy.
“A 2.6-point increase in Alberta’s index is welcome news after the significant declines in optimism we saw during the last half of 2019,” said Keyli Kosiorek, CFIB’s Alberta Policy Analyst, in a news release.
“However, small business confidence still remains critically low, indicating that business owners have serious concerns about the economy and investor confidence.”
The CFIB said the February survey period covered only the early part of the month, and does not fully reflect emerging business concerns over the Coronavirus, transportation network blockages, or the recent decision by Teck Resources to withdraw their application for the Frontier Mine project.
“It looks like there is some cautious optimism in the small business sector early in the month,” said Ted Mallett, CFIB’s vice-president and chief economist. “Most provinces and sectors improved their outlook over January views.”
Nationally, small business confidence rose by more than five points to 60.5. Here are the provincial numbers for February: Quebec (68.3), Ontario (64.4), New Brunswick (61.6), Nova Scotia (59.7), Prince Edward Island (58.3), British Columbia (56.2), Manitoba (55.1), Newfoundland (48.6), Saskatchewan (47.6), and Alberta (39.6).
“Given the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreaks and the on-going protest blockades along rail lines in Canada, conditions were ripe for a plunge in business optimism in February. Instead, we got a healthy bounce in confidence, as the mood of small firms so far appears resilient in the face of these shocks. Other indicators were similarly positive, with net hiring intentions moving back into positive territory and worries about foreign demand dropping in the month,” said Rishi Sondhi, Economist with TD Economics, in a commentary note.
“However, if the COVID-19 outbreak continues to stretch on, it could be just a matter of time before small business confidence takes a hit. Concerns about labour shortages continue to be top of mind, with worries particularly pronounced for firms in Quebec, B.C., and to a lesser extent Ontario and most of the Atlantic Region.”
